Predictions and thoughts on the Oscar nominations
The Acting Nominations that would make me happy (and have a shot): Michael Fassbender for Shame, Gary Oldman for Tinker Tailor Solider Spy.
Fassbender should be a shoe-in for a best actor nomination, however you can’t count on the Academy nominating an actor for a film with such a “racy” topic. Oldman is more of an outside for a nomination.
Tinker Tailor received mixed reactions from US Critics, and it’s more likely Oldman will get love from the BAFTAs than the Academy.
The Acting Nominations that would make me happy (but don’t have much of a chance): Ryan Gosling for Drive, Carey Mulligan for Shame, Benedict Cumberbatch for Tinker Tailor Solider Spy.
While Gosling picked up Golden Globe nominations for Crazy Stupid Love and The Ides of March, it is his performance in Drive which is the real accomplishment. It’s unlikely he’ll get a look in, but in my mind he is very worthy.
While Fassbender is getting most of the acting buzz surrounding Shame, Mulligan is equally deserving. Her performance as the emotionally disturbed sister is both brilliant and heart breaking.
Cumberbatch doesn’t have a shot but boy, it would make my week. His performance in Tinker Tailor is absolutely solid.
Surprises for best picture? I’d love to see Tinker Tailor sneak in the picture race but that is unllikely. If anything TGWTDT is the likely contender to take a “surprise” nomination. It wouldn’t shock me if Bridesmaids picks up a nomination IF there are 8 nominees for best film.
If War Horse gets a nomination I will be annoyed. There are so many superior films out there, that for this to be considered amongst the best is absurd.
The big unknown quantity: Tree of Life -what will happen??? Will it get a picture or directing nomination? Will Chastain get a supporting actress nomination for this and not The Help? It’s hard to predict if the Academy will recognise this unconventional film.
The original score nomination I’d love to see: Cliff Martinez for Drive. It astounds me that this score hasn’t appeared to be in serious contention for best score. Without this score the film would have just felt flat.
The things which will get the nominations that everyone expects they will: The Help, Midnight in Paris, The Artist, The Descendants, Hugo, A Separation
The things which will only get some of the nominations that everyone expects they will: Moneyball, War Horse, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.
Most nominations: The Help and The Artist will lead the pack in number of nominations.
